The Story Behind the Numbers: Health Insurance

Tomorrow, the Census Bureau will release new data on poverty, income, and health insurance in the U.S. in 2011. As we get ready to crunch numbers, we thought it would be helpful to take a deeper look at what these numbers will tell us about health insurance.

Where does this data come from?

Every month, the Census Bureau surveys approximately 50,000 households to estimate the unemployment rate. This is known as the Current Population Survey (CPS). Once a year, they supplement these questions with additional questions regarding health coverage and income and survey 78,000 households. This supplement is known as the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC). The ASEC questions regarding health insurance explore whether each member of the respondent household had insurance coverage throughout the previous calendar year, and if so, what kind of coverage.

There is some lag time between when the data are collected and when they are released. The survey is conducted in March and asks respondents about their insurance coverage over the entire previous year. It then takes several months for the data to be cleaned up and ready to release to the public in September. This means that the data released on Wednesday were collected in March of 2012 and will show insurance coverage at some point during 2011. According to the Census Bureau, the ASEC is the most widely used source of data on health insurance coverage in the U.S.

What will the data be able to tell us?

On Wednesday, we will be able to use the ASEC data to find out how many people in the United States had insurance coverage at some point during 2011 and what kinds of coverage they had (employer based, Medicaid, Medicare, other government insurance, or insurance purchased on the private market). Furthermore, these numbers can be broken down by sex, age, race and ethnicity, and income, among other categories. The ability to break the numbers down in this way means that we can get a better picture of who the uninsured are, as well as a better idea of who relies on different types of insurance the most. Such an understanding is important for researchers and policy makers who are trying to ensure that all populations have access to affordable health coverage and high quality care.

What are we expecting the data will show?

As in past years, we expect that there will be significant numbers of uninsured Americans. Although the recession ended in 2009, it can take time to see the effects of the recovery, so the number of uninsured in the U.S. will likely experience little change. We also expect the data will show that Medicaid continues to be an important source of coverage for low-income families.

One notable change we expect to see is a decrease in the uninsured rate among young adults. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) allows dependents to stay on their parents’ insurance plans until age 26. Last year, this provision led to a decrease in the number of 18-26 year-olds who lacked health insurance and we expect this trend will continue as more young people are able to obtain coverage thanks to the ACA.

When can we expect the numbers to improve?

Although we still expect to see high numbers of uninsured this year, these numbers should decrease substantially as the new health care law is fully implemented. The Affordable Care Act is expected to provide coverage to 32 million Americans by expanding Medicaid eligibility and helping individuals afford premiums for private insurance. Beginning in 2014, when these provisions go into effect, we expect that the number of uninsured will decrease as Americans obtain new coverage through Medicaid, insurance exchanges, and reformed small group and individual markets.