On Tuesday, the Census Bureau will release new data on poverty, income, and health insurance in the U.S. in 2013. As we get ready to crunch numbers, we thought it would be helpful to take a deeper look at what these numbers will tell us about health insurance.
On Tuesday, the Census Bureau will release new data on poverty, income, and health insurance in the U.S. in 2013. As we get ready to crunch numbers, we thought it would be helpful to take a deeper look at what these numbers will tell us about health insurance.
Where does this data come from?
Every month, the Census Bureau surveys approximately 50,000 households to estimate the unemployment rate. This is known as the Current Population Survey (CPS). Once a year, they ask additional questions on health coverage and income. This supplement is known as the Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC). The ASEC questions regarding health insurance explore whether each member of the respondent household had insurance coverage throughout the previous calendar year, and if so, what kind of coverage. According to the Census Bureau, the ASEC is the most widely used source of data on health insurance coverage in the U.S.
There is some lag time between when the data are collected and when they are released. The survey is conducted in March and asks respondents about their insurance coverage over the entire previous year. It then takes several months for the data to be cleaned up and ready to release to the public in September. This means that the data released on Tuesday were collected in March of 2013 and will show insurance coverage rates for 2012. According to the Census Bureau, the ASEC is the most widely used source of data on health insurance coverage in the U.S.
What will the data be able to tell us?
On Tuesday, we will be able to use the ASEC data to find out how many people in the United States had insurance coverage at any point during 2012 and what type of coverage they had (employer-based, Medicaid, Medicare, other government insurance, or insurance purchased on the private market). Furthermore, these numbers can be broken down by sex, age, race and ethnicity, and income, among other categories. The ability to analyze health insurance by these factors gives us a better picture of who does not have health coverage, as well as a better idea of who relies on different types of insurance the most. Such an understanding is important for researchers and policy makers who are trying to ensure that all populations have access to affordable health coverage and high quality care.
What are we expecting the data will show?
Similar to last year, we expect to see a decrease in the uninsured rate among young adults. The Affordable Care Act – also known as Obamacare – allows dependents to stay on their parents’ insurance plans until age 26. Last year, this provision led to a decrease in the number of 18-26 year-olds who lacked health insurance and we expect this trend will continue as more young people are able to obtain coverage thanks to the ACA.
As in past years, we expect Medicaid will continue to be an important source of coverage for low-income families. Finally, we also anticipate that there will be significant numbers of Americans without health coverage – although we look forward to this changing in the near future.
When can we expect the numbers to improve?
Although we still expect to see high numbers of Americans without health insurance this year, these numbers should decrease substantially as the new health care law is fully implemented. In just two weeks -- on October 1st -- Americans will be able to sign up for affordable insurance through the new Health Insurance Marketplaces and begin enrolling in Medicaid coverage if they live in a state that has expanded Medicaid eligibility under the law. This coverage will take effect in January, 2014. We therefore anticipate that future ASEC supplements will reveal decreasing rates of uninsurance as Americans obtain and continue to hold this coverage.